September has, so to speak, "finished its thunder": the month's key events for EUR/USD are done. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank held meetings, and the US and the euro area released key labor and inflation data, along with other important macro indicators (for example, ISM indices). In essence, the fundamental picture is already formed — the only truly significant release remaining on the September calendar is the core PCE index due on the last day of the month.

The upcoming week looks much quieter in that respect: the economic calendar is, to put it mildly, not overloaded with major news, though it is not empty. Some macro reports due this week can influence EUR/USD dynamics, but their role will be largely supportive — they will supplement an already established fundamental backdrop.

After the September meetings, the Fed and the ECB produced a widening decorrelation in expectations about future monetary-policy paths. The ECB took a more cautious stance on further tightening, while the Fed effectively signaled it may allow for another round of rate hikes. Therefore, next week's macro data will be interpreted through that lens: euro-area releases for signs of changed ECB expectations, and US releases for confirmation or softening of hawkish Fed expectations.

Monday–Tuesday

On Monday, Christine Lagarde will deliver opening remarks at an ECB event in Frankfurt, the main early-week event for the single currency. The speech text will not be published in advance, so the market will react to her remarks as they happen. Yet after last week's ECB meeting, Lagarde is unlikely to intensify hawkish rhetoric. If she again emphasizes slowing euro-area growth and reaffirms a pause in the tightening cycle, that would add pressure on the euro and strengthen EUR/USD sellers. She will most likely keep a cautious, neutral-to-dovish tone, reiterating that further ECB steps depend on incoming data.

On Tuesday, the European Commission will publish the preliminary September consumer-confidence reading. In August, the indicator rose by 0.4 points to -15.5, registering a fourth consecutive month of improvement. Most experts expect the index to fall back to -16.0 this month, reflecting rising pessimism among European consumers about their financial prospects. A local upside impulse for the euro would require an unexpected jump above -14.5.

Also on Tuesday, market attention will focus on comments from three Fed officials about the policy path after the September meeting: John Williams and Philip Jefferson will speak at a US Treasury market conference, and Thomas Barkin will give a speech followed by Q&A. Williams and Jefferson are particularly important for traders as they are permanent FOMC voters. They are expected to confirm a moderately hawkish Fed tone, leaving the door open for an additional hike at the December meeting.

Wednesday

On Wednesday, preliminary PMI readings will be released and are likely to be among the week's most significant European releases. These data serve as a leading indicator of the currency bloc's economic health and directly influence ECB rhetoric, so they typically provoke fairly strong volatility in EUR/USD. The consensus forecast calls for Germany's composite index to remain at 51.8 and the euro-area composite at 52.0. That result would signal continued moderate expansion in business activity. Stronger readings (especially in services) would support the euro, while an unexpected deterioration would raise doubts about the euro-area recovery's robustness.

In the US, preliminary S&P Global September purchasing-managers indices will be published, providing one of the first signals about the state of the American economy after the Fed meeting. Consensus expects the manufacturing PMI to fall to 53.6 (from 53.9), the services PMI to decline to 56.0 (from 56.5) and the composite to drop to 55.2 (from 56.0). In other words, the indices are expected to remain in expansionary territory but show some weakening. If the indices surprise to the upside (especially services), hawkish sentiment would be reinforced, and the dollar would see renewed demand. A weak release would work in the opposite direction. If readings fall more than expected but remain above 50, the dollar would likely react only modestly — indicating a slowdown in the pace of growth rather than a contraction.

Thursday

On Thursday, the September IFO indices will be published. As is well known, this is a key gauge of German business sentiment and acts as a leading barometer for the whole euro-area economy. Notably, consensus expects a further improvement in the business climate to 89.0 (from 88.8 in August). The expectations subindex is also forecast to rise to 89.5 (from 89.1). Stronger figures would support the euro by indicating a recovery in the euro area's largest economy. Weak data, especially in the expectations component, would remind traders of lingering issues in the German economy. That said, a positive surprise is likely to have a weaker impact on EUR/USD than a negative one.

Also on Thursday, the weekly US labor-market data will be released. Consensus looks for about 201k initial jobless claims (after 196k last week) and around 1.72–1.74m continuing claims (1.73m last week). Lower values would point to continued resilience in the US labor market.

Another Thursday release is August US new-home sales. The forecast calls for a rise to 619k annualized units from July's 607k. For EUR/USD, this release is secondary, but a materially stronger print would add evidence of a resilient US economy and strengthen the case for a hawkish Fed.

Friday

In Germany, the GfK consumer-confidence index, a leading indicator, will be published. German consumer sentiment improved slightly in September (to -26.6), but experts forecast a modest step back to -27.1 for October. For EUR/USD, this release is secondary. A print in the "green zone" would signal a gradual recovery in domestic demand in Germany; a "red" print would point to weakness among German consumers and further limit the euro's upside.

In the US, durable-goods orders will be released. The August report is unlikely to be a major driver for EUR/USD, but it can help confirm or refute the resilience of US industrial demand. Consensus calls for headline orders to decline 0.3% in August after a 1.1% rise in July, while core orders (ex-transport) are expected to rise 0.5%. Stronger prints, especially in the core component, would support the greenback because they argue for the Fed maintaining a hawkish stance.

Technical view

Technically, on the daily chart, EUR/USD sits on the lower Bollinger-Band line, below the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, and at the lower edge of the Ichimoku Kumo. If sellers secure a close below the 1.1470 support (the lower Bollinger band and the Kumo lower edge on D1), price would be below all Bollinger lines on D1 and Ichimoku would produce a bearish "Parade of Lines" signal. In that case, the next downside target would be around 1.1410, corresponding to the weekly Kumo lower boundary. Given the persistent decorrelation in monetary expectations, short positions in EUR/USD remain the priority.